Production and demand rubber market support strong
First, the trend of the rubber market review
During the 2008 economic crisis, the rubber market demand decreased significantly, Hujiao prices all the way down. December 8, 2008 Hujiao created a record low of 8650 points, then the economy pick up, coupled with policy support, Hujiao gradually rebound, February 9, 2011 Hujiao created a record high of 43500, lower than in 2008 Point rose 34,850 points, or 402.89%. After the economy stimulated the heat, the market economy slowed down, rubber demand weakened, coupled with the 2005 planting of rubber trees into the mature period, the supply surplus intensified, Hujiao prices all the way down, began a five-year bear market cycle, 2016 January 12, Hujiao main fell to 9590 points, in this wave bear market fell a total of 33,910 points. 2008 to 2016 17 years time Hujiao out of a wave of inverted V-type trend. Since the absolute price of rubber is too low, the phenomenon of the abolition of rubber, increased supply reduction, the second half of 2016 with the global economic situation to pick up, demand gradually picked up, coupled with the weather, natural rubber prices rebounded, 22000 line after the callback so far, although the callback is still not finished, but below the cost of strong support, Hujiao bull market consolidation pattern is still not over.
Second, the global supply and demand of natural rubber
At present the world's total acreage of about 12.8 million hectares, of which about 12 million hectares of Southeast Asia. Mainly in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, China and Sri Lanka. Global production of natural rubber in Thailand and Indonesia, two countries, the planting cycle is relatively stable, little change in production supply. In addition to China's two agricultural reclamation 50% of the state, the other countries 80-90% for small garden owners private. Indonesia's rubber quality is better, mainly exported to the EU large tire factory. Nearly 10 years of acreage in Southeast Asia, the average natural growth rate of 3.1%, of which Thailand 4.3%; Malay - 2.1%; Indonesia 0.6%; Vietnam 7.6%. Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar and other emerging countries is the main source of future supply of natural rubber. Rubber tree economic life of 35 to 40 years, usually in the 6-9 years after planting can be mature cut, resulting in natural rubber supply growth rate of stability.
